Hurricane Isaias, October 2026: what happened here
The Panama City Beach pier gauge peaked at 5.6 feet above mean higher high water, its second-highest reading on record behind Opal. The National Weather Service reported seawall damage, beach erosion and road overwash along the Bay and Gulf county coasts. NWS Tallahassee Isaias report
Isaias came ashore west of Bay County at about 8:30 p.m. CDT on October 9, 2026. NHC Discussion 14 Bay County was under a Hurricane Warning and a Storm Surge Warning. NHC Advisory 13A
Mean higher high water (MHHW) is the average of each day's higher high tide. The Isaias peak fell in the moderate flood range for the Panama City Beach gauge. NOAA flood thresholds, Panama City Beach Inside St. Andrew Bay, the Panama City Marina gauge peaked lower, at about 3 feet.
- FEMA declared major disaster DR-4955 on October 27, 2026, for the period October 6-12.
- Bay and Gulf counties have FEMA household aid as well as Public Assistance, which goes to governments. The last day to apply to FEMA is December 26, 2026. OpenFEMA DR-4955
- SBA disaster loans for physical damage are open in both counties until December 28, 2026. SBA Isaias fact sheet
The Gulf front and the bay flood differently
Storms that landed west of Panama City Beach pushed the most water onto the Gulf front. Michael, which landed southeast of Panama City, pushed more water into St. Andrew Bay. NHC Hurricane Michael report
| Storm | Panama City Beach pier (Gulf) | Panama City (St. Andrew Bay) |
|---|---|---|
Opal, 1995 | 7.1 | 5.2 |
Isaias, 2026 | 5.6 | 3.0 |
Dennis, 2005 | 5.4 | 4.3 |
Ivan, 2004 | 5.1 | 3.4 |
Michael, 2018 | 3.9 | 5.3 |
Sally, 2020 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
Helene, 2024 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
NOAA top-ten lists: Panama City Beach pier and Panama City gauge. The pier record starts in 1989, so it misses Eloise. Owners on Grand Lagoon or North Bay should watch the Panama City gauge, not the pier.
Normal tides here are tiny, about 1.3 to 1.4 feet from low to high at both gauges. NOAA datums, Panama City NOAA datums, Panama City Beach A few feet of surge is many times the daily range, which is why storms, not tides, overtop walls here.
Hurricane Michael, 2018: what happened by place
Michael made landfall near Tyndall Air Force Base on October 10, 2018, as a Category 5 hurricane. NHC calls it the strongest landfall on record in the Florida Panhandle. NHC Hurricane Michael report
| Place | What was recorded |
|---|---|
Mexico Beach | Water reached about 15.5 feet NAVD88 at the pier, about 14.7 feet above MHHW. NHC Michael report Of 1,692 buildings, 1,584 were damaged and 809 destroyed. NHC Michael report |
Panama City and St. Andrew Bay | About 4 to 6 feet of inundation, with the Panama City gauge at 5.3 feet above MHHW NHC Michael report |
Panama City Beach, Gulf front | Storm tides of about 5 to 6 feet. FDEP found the beach project protected beachfront development and blamed major damage on wind FDEP Michael report FDEP Michael report |
High-water marks of 10.1 to 12.1 feet NAVD; marina docks and shoreline armoring took major damage FDEP Michael report | |
21.2 feet NAVD at the west end of Beacon Hill, the highest mark recorded, and 149 major structures destroyed in the segment FDEP Michael report FDEP Michael report | |
A breach about 900 feet wide at Eagle Harbor, and about 660 feet lost from the cape tip FDEP Michael report FDEP Michael report | |
150 feet of bulkheads took major damage at Money Bayou FDEP Michael report |
NAVD88 is a fixed elevation reference, and MHHW sits less than a foot above it here. NOAA datums, Panama City Do not compare a NAVD88 mark with an MHHW reading directly.
FDEP counted 1,460 feet of damaged Gulf-front armoring in Bay County and 1,870 feet in Gulf County. That count leaves out bay, bayou and canal walls. FDEP Michael report
Opal and Eloise: why the beach fill matters
Hurricane Eloise in 1975 put high water at 15 to 16 feet above mean sea level along the Panama City beaches. A Corps engineer wrote that only bulkheads stood against the surge. Many of them "were reduced to rubble." USACE paper on Hurricane Eloise
Opal in 1995 drove the Panama City Beach pier gauge to about 8.3 feet above mean sea level, with a debris line near 18 feet. NHC Opal report It damaged 471 buildings and numerous seawalls along Panama City Beach. FDEP Michael report
Opal eroded about 2.9 million cubic yards of sand, and the federal beach restoration project was then accelerated. FDEP Strategic Beach Management Plan Sand has since been placed in 1999, 2006, 2011, 2017, 2021, 2022 and 2023. FDEP project history
In Michael, FDEP credited that beach with protecting beachfront development. Read more in the Gulf-front armoring guide.
The first hours after a storm
- Stay off a moving wall, a cracked cap and ground that has slumped or sounds hollow.
- Keep away from electrical service on docks and lifts until it is checked.
- Photograph from safe ground before anyone moves debris.
- Do not drive or wade through floodwater to reach the wall.
For non-emergency questions, Bay County's Emergency Operations Center line is (850) 248-6040, and alerts go out at alertbay.org. Bay County Emergency Management Gulf County Emergency Management is at (850) 229-9110, with alerts through AlertGulf. Gulf County Emergency Management
What to record before cleanup
Photos taken before cleanup are the evidence adjusters and engineers will ask for. NFIP guidance recommends photos and video before cleanup, saving useful damaged samples and keeping repair receipts. NFIP documentation guidance
- Wide shots: the whole shoreline from the same spots as any older photos you have.
- Close shots: new cracks, open joints, a tilted cap, missing riprap, holes behind the wall and scour at the toe.
- Measurements: how far the cap has moved, using a tape against a fixed point.
- Water marks: debris lines on fences or walls, with the date and time you saw them.
- Dock and lift: damage where they connect to the seawall.
- Receipts: every emergency purchase or repair, with before and after photos. DFS disaster guidance
If you have both wind and flood policies, notify both insurers. Adjusters sort out which damage came from which cause. DFS storm claim guidance
Then get a written assessment before demolition hides the original condition. See seawall assessment.
Pull the wall's paper trail
| Record | Where to look |
|---|---|
Past permits in unincorporated Bay County | The county permit search by parcel; dock and seawall permits use the PRDC prefix Bay County public portal Bay County permit prefixes |
When a wall or dock changed | BayViewer's historical imagery comparison Bay County BayViewer |
Elevation certificate in Bay County | Certificates the county holds from 2007 on Bay County elevation certificates |
Elevation certificate in Panama City Beach | Listed homes can request one by email from the Building Department Panama City Beach flood page |
Gulf County permit history | A public records request linked from the Building Department page Gulf County Building Department |
A missing permit record is a question to ask, not proof of unpermitted work. Older permits may use different numbering.
Storm money is not maintenance money
Damage from years of wear is usually yours to pay for, even after a named storm. Photograph your wall each spring so you can show what a storm changed.
After Michael, FEMA gave Panama City less than it claimed for St. Andrews Marina, citing deferred maintenance and non-storm wear. Panama City memo, February 2026 Mexico Beach's own insurer denied a seawall and boat ramp claim as "erosion and runoff over time." Mexico Beach weekly report, December 5, 2025
| Program | What it says |
|---|---|
FEMA Individual Assistance home repair | Lists foundations, walls, roofs and access routes; seawalls and bulkheads are not on the list FEMA IAPPG |
FEMA help with a dock | Only if the dock is the sole way to reach your primary home FEMA IAPPG |
SBA disaster home loans | Up to $500,000 for real estate; secondary homes and vacation properties are not eligible SBA disaster loan fact sheet. For Isaias, apply by December 28, 2026. An approved loan can add mitigation money, and SBA names seawalls as an example SBA Isaias fact sheet |
NFIP flood insurance | Excludes seawalls and bulkheads NFIP seawall exclusion |
See the seawall insurance guide for policy questions.
Emergency fixes versus permanent repairs
On the Gulf beach, a city or county may authorize temporary armoring when storm erosion threatens a home. It must be removed, or a permanent DEP permit applied for, within 60 days. Section 161.085, F.S.
Temporary measures are limited to sandbags, sand berms, foundation reinforcement and temporary wooden or sheet pile walls without caps or tiebacks. Rule 62B-33.0051(5) New permanent armoring is not allowed under emergency permitting. DEP CCCL application guidelines
- Repairs on the bays and canals still go through the local building department. In unincorporated Bay County, any structural seawall repair needs a permit. Bay County permit requirements
- Port St. Joe treats post-disaster seawall repair as redevelopment that needs permits. Port St. Joe Coastal Management Element
- In an aquatic preserve, a nonconforming dock more than 50% destroyed must be rebuilt to current rules. Rule 18-20.004(5)(a)6.
- Contracting without a license during a declared emergency is a third-degree felony. Section 489.127, F.S.
Check any storm crew before you pay a deposit. The contractor guide shows how.
Water is creeping up between storms
NOAA's Panama City gauge shows sea level rising about 1.2 inches per decade since 1973, roughly a foot per century. NOAA sea level trend, Panama City The Panama City Beach pier shows a faster rate over a shorter record that starts in 1989. NOAA sea level trend, Panama City Beach
Minor coastal flooding starts at about 2 feet above MHHW at the Panama City gauge. NOAA flood thresholds, Panama City When you replace a wall, ask the designer what cap height in NAVD88 they chose and why. See seawall height requirements.
Storm records in Bay County, by area
The same storm hit each shore differently. These guides show the local water marks and rules.
- Gulf-front Panama City Beach: Isaias reached 5.6 feet above MHHW at the Gulf pier in October 2026, second only to Opal in 1995. Gulf pier records
- Downtown Panama City, Massalina & Watson Bayous: the Panama City gauge has run since 1973, and its record is the one to design a bay cap around. Station metadata
- Callaway & Parker on East Bay: Michael's eye crossed here, and NHC lists 923 millibars measured in Callaway. NHC Michael report
- Sandy Creek, Allanton & East Bay: NHC estimated 6 to 9 feet of surge above ground near Tyndall in St. Andrew Sound. NHC Michael report
- Mexico Beach: Michael made landfall here as a category 5, with 9 to 14 feet of surge above ground. NHC Michael report
- Historic St. Andrews: the city marina's post-disaster permit exemption ends in late July 2027. Cost-control memo
Show sourcesHide sources
- Post Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Isaias (NWS Tallahassee)Source reviewed 2026-11-05
- Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 14 (AL092026), 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026Source reviewed 2026-10-28
- Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 13ASource reviewed 2026-10-28
- CO-OPS flood levels: 8729210 Panama City Beach, FLSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2), DR-4955-FL Hurricane Isaias, Bay and Gulf CountySource reviewed 2026-11-05
- U.S. Small Business Administration Fact Sheet - Disaster Loans, Florida Declaration 22033 & 22034 (Disaster FL-20045), Hurricane Isaias (dated 10/27/2026)Source reviewed 2026-11-05
- National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Michael (AL142018), 7-11 October 2018Source reviewed 2026-10-28
- CO-OPS Top Ten Water Levels: Panama City Beach, FLSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- CO-OPS Top Ten Water Levels: Panama City, FLSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- CO-OPS datums: 8729108 Panama City, FLSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- CO-OPS datums: 8729210 Panama City Beach, FLSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- Hurricane Michael Post-Storm Beach Conditions and Coastal Impact Report (April 2019)Source reviewed 2026-10-28
- Surge Effects from Hurricane Eloise (W. W. Burdin, USACE Mobile District, 1976)Source reviewed 2026-10-28
- Preliminary Report: Hurricane Opal, 27 September - 6 October 1995Source reviewed 2026-10-28
- Strategic Beach Management Plan: Panhandle Gulf Coast Region (August 2026)Source reviewed 2026-10-28
- Local Mitigation StrategySource reviewed 2026-10-28
- Emergency Management - Gulf County, FLSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- Document flood damageSource reviewed 2026-10-23
- Disaster assistance and insurance helpline guideSource reviewed 2026-10-23
- Post-storm insurance questions and answersSource reviewed 2026-10-23
- How to search permit information in Unincorporated Bay CountySource reviewed 2026-10-28
- BayViewerSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- Elevation CertificatesSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- Flood Zone & Community Rating System InformationSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- Building DepartmentSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- Memo: Revised Estimate of Probable Cost for the Upland Reconstruction of the St. Andrews Marina (2/2/2026)Source reviewed 2026-10-28
- December 5, 2025 Weekly ReportSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- Individual Assistance Program and Policy Guide (IAPPG) Version 1.1, Amended July 2025Source reviewed 2026-10-27
- SBA disaster assistance: Low-interest relief loans (physical damage loans)Source reviewed 2026-10-27
- FEMA Standard Flood Insurance Policy Commentary, January 2025 updateSource reviewed 2026-10-27
- 161.085 Rigid coastal armoring structures (The 2026 Florida Statutes)Source reviewed 2026-10-27
- Guidance to Local Governments for Emergency Temporary Coastal Armoring and Other Emergency Measures Seaward of the Coastal Construction Control Line (March 2022)Source reviewed 2026-10-27
- CCCL Permit Application GuidelinesSource reviewed 2026-10-27
- Permits | Bay County, FLSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- City of Port St. Joe Comprehensive Plan - Adopted revisions to Coastal Management ElementSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- Rule 18-20.004, F.A.C., Management Policies, Standards, and Criteria (aquatic preserves)Source reviewed 2026-10-28
- Section 489.127, Florida Statutes (2026), Prohibitions; penaltiesSource reviewed 2026-10-27
- CO-OPS Sea Level Trends (derived product API)Source reviewed 2026-10-28
- CO-OPS flood levels: 8729108 Panama City, FLSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- CO-OPS station metadata: 8729108 Panama City, FLSource reviewed 2026-10-28
- Memo: Cost Control Safeguards for the Upland Reconstruction of the St. Andrews MarinaSource reviewed 2026-10-28